Introduction

Today I’ve prepared a selection of sample opening hands across a range of formats, decks, and conditions. For each one, look at the hand, consider the situation, and decide what you’d do for yourself. 

Remember that these hands are selected because they’re close, challenging, and not obvious. Don’t worry too much about “getting them right.” (Who’s to say I even got them “right”?) Instead, the goal is to be thinking about the most important factors and understanding the key concepts.

Supplemental Reading

We’ve gone very deep on general mulligan theory over at CFB. Rather than rewriting that evergreen advice here, I’m going to dive straight into examples. But for those interested, here are some timeless pieces you can turn to. I’ll reference some key concepts from these pieces as we go. 

My (Reid’s) Mulligan Deep Dives: 

Martin Juza’s Mulligan Guides:

Example 1

Standard Dimir Midrange on the play against an unknown opponent.

Reid’s Answer: Keep

This is a “missing piece” type of hand, with the missing piece being black mana. (And to a lesser extent a payoff card like Enduring Curiosity, but there’s plenty of time for that to come). How likely are you to find the missing piece? And what can you accomplish while you wait for the top of your library to deliver it?

The key factor here is that you will be able to develop by making your land drops and playing creatures while you wait to find black mana. 

If you draw a black source by turn 3 (57% chance), this hand is excellent. Even if you don’t draw one until turn 5 (82% chance), you might still be okay because at least you’ve been able to make your land drops, spend your mana, and defend yourself in the meantime. 

Example 2

Modern Boros Energy on the draw against an unknown opponent. Your opponent kept seven cards ahead of you. 

Reid’s Answer: Mulligan

Two things are true of this hand: 

First, you can do better. Boros Energy is a powerful deck full of high-impact, inexpensive cards. The lion’s share of hands that have two, three, or four lands will be better than this. 

Second, you likely need to do better. While five lands with a one-drop and a three-drop might be keepable in certain Limited decks, Modern is a powerful format where missing a beat can be a death sentence. If you don’t draw a card you can play on turn 2, you’re likely to fall hopeless behind. You have no interaction if your opponent plays a scary threat, or has some kind of combo or ramp gameplan that goes over the top of you.

You can talk yourself into keeping this one with the logic that Seasoned Pyromancer can dig you to more action. But turn 4 on the draw in Modern is just too slow to count on those cards being relevant. If you have to keep a hand reliant on Pyromancer, you’d at least rather have some useful nonlands to discard so you can make tokens or set up Phlage to escape! This is a case of “don’t be afraid to mulligan.” Mulligan decisions are about looking at the complete picture, not about finding one excuse to justify your choice

Example 3

Pioneer Rakdos Midrange on the draw, after sideboarding against Rakdos Prowess. Your opponent kept seven cards ahead of you.

Reid’s Answer: Keep

Most opening hands simply look better on the play than on the draw. Being on the draw in a fast matchup is stressful, and your standards can go up a little bit in an attempt to compensate for the disadvantage. However, be aware that your mulligan decisions can’t reverse this disadvantage and you need to do the best you can with the situation you’re facing. 

This hand has the obvious flaw of having no turn 2 play when on the draw in a fast matchup. The reason I keep is that Fatal Push is a uniquely important and irreplaceable card in the matchup. This is a case of “know what you’re looking for.” What makes a good opening hand under these conditions? And what can you reasonably expect?

Rakdos Midrange only plays between four and six one-mana removal spells. (Let’s say for the sake of this example that there are only four Fatal Pushes). If you don’t have a Fatal Push in your opening hand, you’re likely to be run over by a good draw from Rakdos Prowess on the play. 

In other words, in order for a mulligan to meaningfully improve your hand and your chances of winning, you’d need to find Fatal Push, a second cheap play, and have an otherwise good hand. You’re only 40% to find a four-of in your opening seven cards, and meeting all of these criteria at the same time is even less likely. 

To throw this one back would lead to over-mulliganing. The chances that you’d weaken your hand or wind up mulliganing to five are too high. As such, you’d fail to capture the equity of the scenarios where: (1) you draw a cheap card in your first two draw steps; (2) your opponent stumbles or has a slow hand; (3) you’re able to use Extinction Event to come back from a bad situation; or (4) your opponent’s first play is Thoughtseize rather than a creature. 

Sure, you might lose this game if your opponent has a great draw and the top of your library fails to deliver. But wouldn’t that have been the case even if you mulliganed?

Example 4

Foundations booster draft on the play against an unknown opponent. You’ve already mulliganed once.

Reid’s Answer: Keep

Compared to Constructed, games of Limited tend to be closer, go longer, and run on slimmer margins. These are exactly the circumstances that make mulligans the most painful. 

This is a two-lander on the play with no cards that cost less than three mana, which is a risky situation. The problem is that you’ve already mulliganed once, so the alternative to keeping this is going down to five cards. 

Starting with five cards is a massive disadvantage that makes it difficult to play the game–particularly in Limited. Even when you find a good five, the resource disadvantage is stifling and catches up to you quickly. Once you’ve mulliganed once, you should more or less keep your six card hand if you see any realistic way of winning. With this hand, it’s easy to imagine winning simply by rattling off two lands and sticking an unanswered Elenda.

While I feel confident in keeping this, the question of what to bottom is less obvious. I could see a case for any of Inspiring Paladin, Bake into a Pie, or Vampire Soulcaller. Personally, I’d default to bottoming Vampire Soulcaller as the most expensive card. 

Example 5

Vintage Cube draft with a strong Mono-Red deck on the play against an unknown opponent.

Reid’s Answer: Mulligan

Fast decks can mulligan slightly more aggressively than slower ones. Coming out smoothly in the early turns has a larger impact on the outcome of the game. On the other hand, you have less time to draw out of an awkward opening. 

This hand is very good against opposing creatures. Keeping it might work out if you happen to be up against–say–a white weenie deck, or a green deck powered by mana dorks. 

But Vintage Cube draft is home to a great range of strategies, and many of them simply won’t care about your burn spells and your Umezawa’s Jitte. They’ll be planning to go over the top with a combo or some kind of powerful threat. In all of those cases, this hand is much too reactive and you won’t be able to put sufficient pressure on the opponent.

If you have no information about what your opponent is playing, and you truly believe you’ve drafted a strong, punishing deck, you should mulligan this hand looking for one that can at least play a creature and start attacking. 

That’s all for today! I hope you’ve enjoyed these examples. Don’t forget to cheer on Team ChannelFireball Ultimate Guard at Pro Tour Aether Drift next month!