On December 16 there will be another B&R announcement which is a moment where WOTC posts their thoughts on the formats and accompanies those thoughts with (un)bans.

Today, I want to focus on Modern, as the format I've played the most and...no longer do. I'd like to both explore what ought to be done *in my opinion* to get the format back on its feet and what I actually expect to happen.

When bans do go live, I will comment on the actual changes and juxtapose them with my predictions!

Current State of the Format

What's going on now in Modern can be summed up with three words. 

The

One

Ring

I'd already discussed this issue at length in another piece on the blog that you can find here.

It appears that the situation I talked about actually got worse. The One Ring is no longer below 50% of representation.

It's up to 60% now! It's absolutely insane and not something we'd ever seen before. The domination and presence of this one card is unprecedented.

Now, there are cards that tend to be super popular like Lightning Bolt but it's a different vibe completely. Bolt is a generic piece of interaction that everyone expects - but it's still a removal spell. If it was Shock, Doom Blade, it doesn't make much of a difference. 'My creature dies' is the outcome but that's largely predictable when you engage in a game of Magic.

The One Ring is completely different. It introduces a new dynamic that few people appreciate. Between the endless stream of cards that invalidates the concept of card advantage, being indestructible, and fogging constantly - it does leave a bitter taste in your mouth. On top of that, when you play with a Ring deck, regardless of what the theme is, you're quickly see that if you can play Ring, you should. Resolve Primeval Titan? Well, maybe I should wait a bit and start with Ring.

If we look at the screenshot above once again, another, arguably more important, pattern emerges. Every single card on that list is from RW Energy. If that wasn't enough, literally two cards on that list are not from direct-to-modern sets. This means that the whole format is basically Ring play patterns in specifically Energy decks that are mostly non-organic MTG cards.

This situation has killed the love for the format for most people even though they've played the format for years. I am definitely in that group.

What Needs to Change?

The first question is whether the situation is salvageable at this point. While normally I'd be happy to suggest a solution, now I am kind of lost. 

The default is to ban Ring - that is clear. However, that doesn't address the Energy problem.

Okay - so ban something from Energy? This could happen. Depending on how much you want to hurt the deck, it could be Raptor, Guide of Souls, Phlage, Ocelot, or some combination of all of those.

But then that doesn't solve the issue of the entire format being MH block constructed with no organic history or sentiment - about which I also talked here. This particular thing doesn't have to be an issue, depending on your personal philosophy. As far as I'm concerned, losing touch with the sentimental part of this *nonrotating* format is a downside.

However, I do not see a solution to the horizon-ness of Modern other than maybe unbans to put some good old recognisable effects back into the format. Even still, Splinter Twins of the world would probably still be mainly MH or, more depressingly, turn out unplayable.

With all that said, what would I do if I had the power to? With the knowledge I have and as a long-term Modern player?

I would combine bits and pieces from the statements above.

1. Ban Ring

2. Ban Amped Raptor (and maybe something else) from Energy

3. Unban iconic Modern cards like Splinter Twin, Umezawa's Jitte, Faithless Looting.

I'd also keep a close eye on the format and un-hesitantly react. I'd be tempted to nuke all the cheesy polarising cards like Ruby Medallion or Ugin's Labirynth that devolve games very fast but that might sounds too much like 'ban MH3'.

If I could wave a Magic wand, I'd make all MH sets disappear but that's just deluded wishful thinking on my part.

Prediction

Let's get real for a moment. What can WOTC realistically do?

If I was a betting man (which I'm not), I'd go for:

1. The One Ring is banned

2. Ajani, Nacatl Pariah is banned

Why Ajani? I think that WOTC wouldn't want to ban an uncommon (Raptor) and Raptor is much less scary if it cannot cascade into Ajani. On top of that, Ajani creates those weird subgames with it flipping and awkward combats for the opponent where Cats have pseudo-unblockable. Ajani shines early, against removal, and in board stalls.

Conclusion

This is what I think and I am curious how it actually shakes out!

Join me on Dec 16th to see what actually happened, whether I was right, and which decks are going to be winners and losers of what is to follow!

And as always, please remember to hold my hand and let's pass the turn together. Cheers!